Swapping Out Judges

The Washington Post points out (registration required) that Bush's nomination won't really make all that much difference even if Rehnquist does step down:

Even assuming Bush ignores Specter's advice, the president would merely be exchanging one hard-core conservative vote for at most a marginally harder-core vote. The basic arithmetic of the court's three-on-the-right, two-in-the-middle, four-on-the-left configuration would hold steady. Given the central truth that, as the late Justice William Brennan used to like to say, "It takes five votes to change anything around here," this means both O'Connor and Kennedy still would have to acquiesce in any further rightward shift in legal doctrine."

Of course, if O'Connor retires, all bets are off. But the dems still have that fillibuster thing available.